What does the future hold for visas and green cards? No one really knows. But here are some thoughts based on conversations I had with people in Congress and at USCIS.
Short term. Using a team of temporary officers, USCIS is quickly processing the backlog of naturalization cases. This project will be complete soon. The team will then be assigned to clear out the backlog of adjustment of status (green card) cases.
The Department of Labor's processing of labor certifications is slowing. This agency as a whole seems to be going in reverse. It may even return to supervised recruitment which is the method used before PERM started about a decade ago.
Mid term. Due to the economy and increased influence of the unions with the Democratic Congress, there is little likelihood of more temporary work visas such as H-1Bs in the short term.
A recent USCIS study of H-1B visas found 21% had either technical violations of the rules or were fraudulent. Some in Congress now say there is an "H-1B problem." This bodes poorly for legislation increasing H-1B visa numbers.
Long term. Congress may provide some relief to technology companies and immigrating professionals by creating a new visa to bridge the gap between filing for a green card and its issuance. This is an interesting concept which might replace the H-1B visa for many.
Congress is working on a bill to recapture about 500,000 unused green card visa numbers lost due to slow processing after 9/11. If this bill passes, it will speed the processing of the EB-3 category for all and the EB-2 for China and India which are quite backlogged. Many agree that change is needed so the U.S. can more easily retain recent technology graduates as well as those with MS and Ph.D. degrees.
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